April 2007 Archives

I still find it ironic that in the aftermath of the 1996 Port Arthur massacre which claimed 35 lives, John Howard, Australia's ultra-conservative Prime Minister, took a politically brave stand against the Australian gun lobby and forced the states to restrict the ownership of semi-automatic weapons.

At the same time, he provided millions of dollars to buy back newly banned weapons, removing them from the community.

Critical as I am of Howard and his miserable conservative government, this is an action that earned my grudging respect. Popular political wisdom stated the gun lobby was untouchable. Howard proved that the lobby didn't have much support in the wider community.

I'd like to think, but I'm not convinced, that a Prime Minister from the other side of politics would have made the same stand.

Now, over ten years later, and after yet another firearm massacre in the US, it seems that Howard's action has shown a quantifiable benefit.

THE tough gun controls introduced after the Port Arthur massacre have probably saved about 2500 lives, economists say.

Debunking a widely reported study to the contrary, their analysis suggests that removing 600,000 guns from circulation has sharply reduced suicide and murder rates ...

... Andrew Leigh, at the Australian National University, and Christine Neill of Canada's Wilfrid Laurier University found a sharp, statistically significant reduction in murder and suicide.

"There were on average 250 fewer firearm deaths per year after the implementation of the National Firearms Agreement than would have been expected," they said.

Using deaths data since 1915, the authors estimated gun control had led to about 35 fewer murders and 247 fewer suicides annually since 1997. They calculate slightly smaller numbers when their statistical model is restricted to data after 1969.

It's heartening that there's empirical evidence supporting what many suspected. Restricting firearms in the broad community saves lives.

Background: For readers unfamiliar with Australian gun laws, here is a Wikipedia article that gives a good overview.

But not gone forever. Just incredibly time poor at the moment.