One Year Out, the Election Campaign Has Started

When the present Federal Coalition Government took power, extensive training schemes were in place. These programs were implemented as part of the Wages Accord agreement between the former Labor government and the ACTU, as a tradeoff for implementing industrial reforms that made many workers redundant.

In their first budget after taking power, the Conservatives axed most of these programs. They've ignored vocational training ever since.

Wind the clock forward ten years, an election is on the distant horizon, the economy's booming, and an acute shortage of skilled labour is becoming an embarrassment for the government. True to form, they throw cash at the problem and give mature workers up to $3000 for training. Political problem solved for now.

It's so true to form, it's almost laughable. High petrol prices? Subsidise LPG conversions.

What's next? Interest rate rise? How about a handout for home interest payments?

These events indicate how difficult it will be for the Opposition to win the next election. The government is awash with cash. Problems that crop up can be neutralised with dollars.

The next budget will contain giveaways that will dwarf those of the last pre-election budget.

Industrial relations won't save the opposition. Yes, the new laws are draconian, but the labour shortages are insulating workers from the laws' worst aspects. EBAs for the majority of employees of larger companies aren't due for renegotiation until 2008.

I'm experiencing a bad case of deja vu. At this time during the last political cycle, as now, Labor was ahead in the polls. It didn't do them much good then, and I fear it won't matter much this time round, either.