The Morning After

Too many red wines (and a few more whines as the results came in) last night.

Unlike other more prominent left leaning bloggers (here, here and here), I had no illusions that Labor would get in. The fear tactic worked at treat, and there just weren't enough reasons for the punters to take the risk.

I didn't think the government would increase their majority. Credit where it's due, Howard ran a brilliant campaign. He threw his long held economic convictions out the window, and pitched at the uninformed swinging voter.

R.I.P. the philosophical election campaign.

Howard completely out manoeuvred Lathem on the Tasmanian forrests. He set the agenda by making noises about going green, then said nothing until Labor showed their hand. His move to effectively leave the forestry status quo in Tasmania delivered two seats by 6.00pm eastern time. Game over.

Going on the swings, it's arguable that the demise of One Nation delivered a double whammy to Labor. One nation took away traditional Labor voters when Pauline was on the scene. The collapse of One Nation delivered those voters to Howard. The numbers are almost identical.

The democrats are dead. Pity as IMO they saved us from the worst excesses of sitting governments, regardless of persuasion. I gave them my second preference in both houses. The Democrat's platform was not as loopy as the Greens, and I didn't think it was a good thing to have Labor and the Greens holding the balance of power in the Senate. I needn't have worried. The government may control the Senate as well.

We'll soon see where the God Botherers' Family First party is coming from if the government requires their vote(s) to get bills through the upper house. Expect to see the sleeper issues come back into prominence after July next year. Telstra, cross media ownership laws, and unfair dismissal, to name three.

Expect to see some really nasty Thatcherite legislation come through if they get Senate control in their own right.

It will be interesting to see how the government conducts itself this term. Will they lose the plot completely as the enormity of the win dawns on them? I'm a believer in the truism that governments get elected once too often before they get thrown out. Watch for unrest if Howard decides to hang on, as he well might.