Despite my mother's reluctance to change her vote, it seems that many other may be prepaired to if you believe the poll results in the Sun Herald this morning.
Personally, I don't trust the polls. There's too much variance in the results. Last week labor was on the ropes with the coalition having 50% of the primary vote, this week Labor's ahead on a two party preferred basis 54% to 46%.
You only have to cast back to two not so distant elections that went against polled trends. Paul Keating was given no chance in 1993 against John Hewson, and Steve Bracks won against Jeff Kennet in Victoria in 1999. It seems that lots of voters make their minds up on the day.
Unfortunately, the politically astute are outnumbered 9 to 1 according to Paul Sheehan (no link) in yesterday's Sydney Morning Herald. No matter how much we bloggers lament the standard of electioneering, the message is not aimed at us, but the 20% of the population who are swinging voters and don't know or care about politics. They are sick to death of the election campaign, don't particularly like the government, and have misgivings about the challenger. Their decision is based on self interest. My guess is they don't have a clue who to vote for, and their answers to polling questions depend on what's happened in the last couple of days.
These people will front the booths next Saturday and vote on instinct. My guess is that they will go for safety and vote for the incumbent.
I fear you are right, but the odd thing is that where I live - in the heart of rusted on coalition voters and predominantly white middle class, middle aged and rural, I don't know of a single peron who wants to vote for Howard. It's just a shame that our electorates are far too safe to be useful.
A senate vote however will be quite interesting....
There was another poll in the paper this morning, showing the government ahead by four points, two party preferred.
Labor's chances hinge on Green preferences.
Still a week to go. A lot can happen.