Conservatives Escape the Straight Jacket

It's official, the man who idolises Maggie Thatcher can now do his best to emulate her. The conservatives have control of the Senate. The soon to be mogulised SMH article says Pauline Hanson's preferences got them over the line. Is there no end to the political influence of that woman? She's eclipsed the preference deal blunder between Labor and Family first that would have given the God Botherers the balance of power. (Mind you, Barnaby Joyce is one as well.)

The only possible obstacle for the Government is rumblings from the Greens that they might challenge the result in Queensland. Not much comfort there.

Senate control is a bit of a dilemma for Howard. Do you go hard while the going's good, or do you back off and hope that you keep control next time round? Despite Howard's assurances that they won't be too radical, there'll be lots of discussion in the party room about how far they're prepared to go. The 'goers' will be thinking how the electorate has deliberately kept the sitting government in check in the Senate for the past 25 years. They'll argue that the situation this time round is an aberration.

A lot will depend if Howard stays or retires, but I expect the 'goers' will win out.

Expect the following to happen post June 2005:

1. The sale of Telstra. Not a forgone as the Nationals are not keen, or weren't when One Nation was breathing down their necks. Perhaps they'll take the advice of an incredibly smart person and break the company up.

2. Abolish Unfair Dismissal laws. Well, not exactly 'abolish,' just make them not applicable to small business. Small business may be reluctant to expand because of this arbitrary limit. Is a two tier system workable? I suspect the answer may lie in removing this protection from all employees.

3. Amend Industrial Relations laws. Awards will be pared back further and it will become harder for employees to collectively bargain via a union. Not a problem if you're well educated and qualified, but an open door to exploit the less skilled and socially confident.

   They'll remove the right for the Arbitration court to arbitrate disagreements, or abolish it completely, so the only recourse for disputes if you're on a contract will be the civil courts.

   There'll be some colourful, if futile, action from Trade Unionists.

   The aim, of course, is to have a pool of low paid, unskilled workers, US style, who have no rights or bargaining power.

4. Tighten up welfare. The government will make it harder to receive or keep benefits. The money saved will pay for expensive middle class welfare and high income tax cuts.
5. Amend the US Free Trade Agreement. The government argued that Labor's forced FTA amendments to protect the PBS from frivolous drug patents were unnecessary. The Americans are a bit upset about these 'unnecessary' amendments.

   Will the government cave in the US if this becomes a show stopper? It can if it wants. More likely they'll give away something else. Australian content regulations for existing media may do the trick.

6. Repeal Cross Media Law. Fairfax is gone, soon to be under the heal of a media mogul. Expect more foreign control and media concentration; those bits that Rupert doesn't own already.
7. Nobble the ABC. They now have the power to mess with the ABC's charter. The possibilities are endless. More political interference is likely. Introduce advertising, change the way the board is selected. Cut funding further. Interfer with news and current affairs programing and personnel. They could even privatise it completely.
8. Strengthen anti-terrorist laws. Allow the detention of children, increase surveylance on the population, remove checks and balances.
9. Amend the Senate's voting method. This is not protected by the constitution. They could abolish proportional representation or introduce quotas to lessen the influence of minor parties. Tempting, but that will help the Opposition when they win government. More likely they'll introduce city and country electoral zones. If done cleverly it could deliver an opposition disadvantaging gerrymander.

There'll be others. Hopefully, enough to ensure the electorate won't be so obliging next time round.