September 2004 Archives

At least Labor's political launch bribes amounted to about half that of the coalition. Still irresponsible in my view, given the uncertain economic outlook.

The Gold Medicare initiative looks like an extension of the DVA Gold Health Card provided to ex-servicemen. As someone who has an elderly parent it's certainly attractive. If it's enough incentive to make my 88 year old mother vote Labor is another thing entirely.

I'm looking forward to the next opinion polls. My prediction is that nothing much will change. Howard promised too much to be taken seriously, and Labor hasn't convinced the debt ridden voters in the marginals that they are safe with the economy.

If Labor can't consistently poll better than 52% two party preferred, then they can't win.

An interview with the Prime Minister heard on ABC Radio’s AM program while driving to work this morning:

CATHERINE MCGRATH: If you're so concerned about interest rates, why are you spending so much?

JOHN HOWARD: Well, Catherine, to start with on the spending. This spending, half of it… well a lot of it is not spending, it's tax reduction. I mean, you can't call the entrepreneur's tax break, you can't call the childcare rebate, you can't call that spending. They're tax reductions, they're tax benefits.

But on top of that the figures quoted are over a four year period. And when all of our election commitments are fully costed, added up and everything the surpluses we will project will be larger than the surpluses that were announced at the time of the May budget. [My emphasis]

So, a tax reduction is different in effect from government spending? You don't have to be an economist to work out that either way, there's extra money sloshing around in the economy. Extra money for the population to spend can be inflationary.

I suppose if the money's spent without the government going into deficit then there's less risk of pressure on interest rates, however, Howard is promising to spend revenue based on the current growth of the economy, projected four years into the future. The big risk is that the economy won't grow at this rate, and a slowdown will impact on the amount of money available for the government's promises. (And Labor's too, for that matter.) If this happens, the government will have to break the promises, or go into deficit.

There are warnings of a possible slowing down of the US and Chinese economies. Couple this to the oil price at near record levels, a tottering housing market and record levels of private debt, the promises of both parties may well be unattainable.

I will be interested to see how the opinion polls are effected by Howard's new election bribes. I recall that the budget handouts didn't bring on the expected poll bounce; maybe the same thing will happen this time. Perhaps the voting population is becoming immune to these over the top financial inducements? The political process would be all the better if this was the case.

Unbiased commentator. Must be true!

As usual, the AFL finale didn't quite reach the standards of the two qualifying matches last week, but was an entertaining game none the less. Good luck to Port in stopping the Lions from equaling the most consecutive flags record. I doubt if a team will get another opportunity in my life time.

The grand final was a welcome distraction from the unpleasant reality of opinion polls published yesterday showing the government leading by a wide margin. The jump in support for the government seemed large when compared to polls taken only a week ago. Maybe it's a glitch. I'd like to think so, but I'm not delusional to the extent of thinking that they are going to lose the election.

We can be thankful that the election kept the Prime Minister in the MCG stands where he belongs. Unfortunately, we won't be so lucky next year, where it's assured he'll be back on the pitch handing out the gongs.

I know I've laboured this subject lately, but it's so good I've added another instalment.

John Birmingham's view from the Bulletin:

If the Vics think a Brisbane-Port Adelaide final is about as humiliating as it gets, then they haven’t spied the groaning banquet table full of shit sandwiches yet to be eaten. A couple of finals played without Melbourne teams and there’ll be no earthly reason why the rest of the country has to put up with watching their teams play the season decider in a footballing backwater like the MCG. If Sydney, Brisbane, Adelaide and Perth continue as the engines of the AFL, why shouldn’t they receive the prize of hosting a grand final? Tradition? Not a chance. The league auctioned that off to the highest bidder when it set up the subsidiary interstate businesses that now dominate head office.

The Lions, with three premierships in a row and aiming for four on Saturday, might make soothing noises about the honour of playing at the MCG but you can bet if AFL supremo Andrew Demetriou offered them the chance of a Gabba grand final, they’d be all over it like a cheap Chinese suit. Regardless of this year’s result, the brute fact of dollars and demographics means one- or two-team cities will have a mortal lock on finals berths until Melbourne pulls the plug on life support for a bunch of wheezers, try-hards and terminal cot cases such as Richmond and the Doggies. They could probably think about putting a bullet into Collingwood too while they’re at it, just because it’d be nice to give our children something to dream of in these grim post-9/11 days. Our children are the future, you know.

His tongue in cheek article actually points at a solution to the problems of propping up unprofitable Victorian teams and dealing with an intractable MCC that bedevil the AFL administration.

It's so easy. Form an AFL Super 12 Competition.

To get over the Melbourne club problem, create four new teams that feed from the existing Melbourne clubs. The old Melbourne clubs can reconstitute the VFL. No more problems with those pesky upstart interstate clubs. The traditionalists will be happy.

The new competition would consist of four clubs from Melbourne, one from Geelong, and the six existing interstate teams. Create another franchise for Tasmania, and you have it. A real AFL, one that can easily play two home and away rounds in a season, has a final six playoff series which is, of course, held at home grounds based on merit.

I'm available to kick the process off. Call me!

With all the blather from the government regarding preemptive strikes on terrorists situated in other sovereign nations, we should remember what happened in 1999 when Timor went up in flames after the independence vote. If ever there was a time to take unilateral action, that was it. It didn't happen. Basically, Australia sat on its hands until it got clearance to move from the UN Security Council.

At the time, I can remember Downer on the radio, obviously under pressure to do something about the situation, saying in effect that to move into Timor would be the equivalent of an invasion of Indonesia.

People will argue (rightly) that the troubles in Timor weren't a direct danger to Australia, but the issue is the same; unilateral action in a foreign nation is tantamount to a declaration of war.

I suspect Howard got carried away by his mate George's rhetoric on this issue, and the subsequent US invasion of Iraq, when he first stated the government's position on the subject. He didn't twig that the US, who has a tad more military might than us, can get away with this sort of thing.

At least Downer is talking some sense on this issue:

"Of course we haven't any intention of sending troops into Indonesia without the approval of Indonesia.

"Now in the case of Indonesia, or Malaysia or Singapore or the Philippines, these are countries which are our partners in the war against terrorism.

"You would obviously work with the country involved. First of all you would do it with the co-operation of the country involved."

Apparently, the preemptive strike initiative ...

[is] aimed at countries unable or unwilling to act against an imminent terrorist threat against Australia.

So that's what the Abrams tanks are for! All we need now is a lawless Pacific atoll to invade, and a way to get them there.

What at hoot! (If it's true.)

Brisbane will play in their fourth grand final next Saturday after narrowly defeating Geelong last night.

I didn't get to see the game but I understand it was another hard fought contest. We can only hope (against prior experience) that next week's game will be of a similar standard.

It will be worth noting the level of interest in Melbourne as they host their first ever non Victorian grand final. Of course, it should be played in Adelaide where there would be some passing interest in the result, but we all know the AFL would rather sacrifice their first born than move a grand final from 'the home of football.'

Amongst all the noise over over the school funding debate, I haven't heard any debate over the merits of sending your kids to an elite private school. Do they turn your average kid into an academic super star, like many parents hope?

In my experience, they don't.

I attended one of these schools. Admittedly my experiences were over 30 years ago, but one rule hasn't changed; if your kid's academically motivated, and they take advantage of the facilities, they can excel at a elite private school. If not, you're burning your hard earned.

How do I know this? Because I was one of those non conformist kids.

Private school is about selling an image, and every pupil is a walking billboard marketing the image. The pressure is on pupils to conform.

I hated the mindless rules and obligations that went with attending my school. I wasn't the type to draw so much attention to myself that I was expelled (a lot were), but I non conformed in every way I could. Including academically.

Looking back, I now realise I should have attended the local high school. I wouldn't have done any worse going there, and I may have done better without all the baggage that going to a private school entails.

I don't blame the school for my experience. We were just not suited to each other. Different schools suit different kids. The trick is to match the two correctly.

It's half way through the election campaign today, and my feelings at the moment are 'who cares?' Very unlike me to be so detached from the political process. It's all I can do to write about it.

As I've stated before, I feel that we are in for another three years of conservative government. I'm heartened by the opinion polls that show Labor still in the running, even after the bombing in Jakarta, but the economy's going well and government's not incompetent. Nasty, narrow minded, sycophantic, dishonest and divisive maybe, but not incompetent. Not enough for the punters to turn against them.

I've just watched one of the best games of Australian football seen for years. Port Adelaide defeated St Kilda by a goal in a classic display of tough, running footy.

If anyone wonders how a Sydney born and bred rugby follower became an AFL tragic, watch that game.

If Brisbane win tomorrow night, they play Port next week in the first ever non Victorian Grand Final. Something I've waited 20 years to see.

Mark Latham's chances of picking up Adelaide seats in anywhere but the Port Adelaide area evaporated after he was pictured in various papers wearing a Port Adelaide supporter's scarf while kicking a football.

Wearing the scarf was obviously suggested by a Liberal spy. Latham, being from Sydney, would not have known that 90% of Adelaidians support the the Crows, not Port. Just because Port are in the finals doesn't alter this fact; expect Latham to photographed in a Crows jumper during his next outing.

One of the blogs that I read regularly (and one that I neglected until just then to put on my blogroll) is Rank & Vile. Guido is a member of the Labor Party and writes about the goings on in his local branch.

Guido has just written a couple of posts straight from the heart. I wish I could write so well.

Have a look, here and here.

Not much point in asking me what I thought of the 'Great Debate.' I didn't watch it past the first 10 minutes, and that was on the ABC at 10.00pm following the Bradman documentary and Stephen Hawkins telemovie.

10 minutes was enough! Talk about mogadon TV. Boring as. Of course, that was the point. Howard made sure that it was early enough in the campaign to be forgotten by polling day, and both sides made sure that only the dedicated political observer would sit through it. A totally meaningless exercise, despite the 'worm' and its endorsement of Latham.

Put them in front of a live audience with a free rein to ask questions. Now that would be entertaining!

When I posted my off the cuff remark about the bomb blast in Jakarta I had at the back of my mind the pasting Mick Keelty, the Federal Police Commissioner received at the hand of the government when he voiced much the same sentiment.

Mike Carlton sums it up:

I wonder what Downer and the Federal Police Commissioner, Mick Keelty, chatted about on their flight to Indonesia on Thursday evening. When Keelty suggested a few months ago that our part in Iraq had heightened the danger to Australia, Downer grossly shouted him down and accused him of toeing the terrorist line.

Perhaps his lordship has had the grace to admit now that Keelty was right, and to apologise. But somehow I doubt it.

Will certain people still claim that the odds of attacks against Australian citizens and interests have not increased since our involvement in Iraq?

In the Sydney Morning Herald, an excellent article about the consequences of pouring money into the health system without any means of keeping the costs controlled.

While both sides of government compete in terms of their reputations as financial managers, little attention has been paid to the way the Coalition Government has tied the fortunes of taxpayers to rising health costs over which it has no effective control.

The government, in particular, has lost the view that to keep the health providers in line requires the consumer to fork out cash over and above the government subsidy. The more the provider charges, the more the consumer needs to pay to create pressure on the provider not to raise prices too far.

Then there is Medicare Plus, where the taxpayer meets 80 per cent of all health costs exceeding $300 for some families and $700 for others. This taxpayer contribution is 80 per cent of whatever the doctor or other health provider sees fit to charge. Somewhat unsurprisingly, there was a $1.4million blow-out of the scheme in Victoria in the month of June alone, according to one report.

The government doesn't see the problem ...

Remarkably, the Government suggests it has no responsibility for controlling increasing health costs. The federal Health Minister recently declared that "the Government doesn't believe in price control. We don't control the price of bread. We don't control the price of milk. We don't control the price of medical services."

They control the amount of money going to the medical industry. Simple, really.

One and a half weeks into the election campaign, and I've hardly written a thing about it. Time for some thoughts on the subject.

The Coalition called the election earlier than (I) expected, seemingly to prevent any more embarrassing questioning in parliament about the 'Kids Overboard' affair. As the Poll Bludger's electoral calender explained about the 9 October election date:

If the Prime Minister wishes to avert a potentially dangerous session of parliament starting on August 30, but thinks the NRL and school holidays make October 2 unfeasible, this is his only real option as he will otherwise face a seven-week campaign.

I was right about him going before his mate Dubya faces the people, but wrong about the date, predicting 23 October.

The upshot of the longer campaign period is that it's given people time to register to vote, unlike the last few elections where the rolls closed soon after the elections were called. It's mostly young first time voters who'll enrol and it'll be interesting to see what effect they have on the result.

I'm no fan of the government or my local member. I live in the Benelong electorate and will number the incumbent last on my ballet paper, as recommended by John Valder. However, I'm not hopeful that the government will change, being one of those who subscribe the theory that oppositions don't win elections, governments lose them. Governments lose when the economy turns bad, or when they become arrogant after being too long in power. The economy's going fine, and although there a whiff of arrogance there, it's still got a bit of festering to go before it becomes noticeable to the general population.

Howard's cleverly turned the focus on the economy by 'Trustworthy' slogan. It'll take a long time for the population to forget Labor's 18% interest rates of the early 90s, and with so many people heavily in debt due to the housing boom, largely brought about by the government's changes in capital gains tax, it's a very effective scare tactic.

The campaign is taking the form of a bidding war. Labor announces their health policy and was snookered by the government's health counter bid. Labor's tax policy is out and the government snipes at it.

It's only people who are relatively financially secure, like myself, who will focus on all the non financial issues and vote accordingly. I suspect that there will be a reduction in the vote in Liberal safe seats as people register a protest vote. The government will take the hit in the safe seats and get over the line in the marginals.

I have to keep reminding myself there's over three weeks left to run. Perhaps once the big ticket items are out of the way there'll be enough time to focus on some of the non financial stuff that disturbs so many of us.

As indicated previously, the Bride and I spent last weekend in Melbourne. A weekend away made all the better being sans kids. Those who have children will know, although they are a big and (mostly) welcome part of your life, an occasional interlude away is a healthy practice.

I quite like Melbourne. It's so different from Sydney. I think Melbourne has a very European feel with its wide streets, trams and cafe culture. Not brash and glitzy like my home town. We have family and friends living there, and of course, there's the football.

So, we lob into Melbourne Airport, pick up a car and follow the signs to the city. We haven't been there for a few years and I knock back the suggestion from the car hire firm that we should buy a toll pass for the Citylink toll roads, thinking that we're not likely to use it. This is fine, but the authorities have picked up the awful Sydney practice of directing traffic onto the toll roads and not signposting alternative routes. It caused us some problems too and from the airport. Perhaps I will shell out the cash next time.

We stayed in a pub on Swanston Street. Great location, an easy walk to the landmarks, one of which is Federation Square. It wasn't there last time we visited, and I wish it hadn't been there this time either! What an abomination ..... completely out of character with the city, looked cheap and nasty; an edifice built by a city that thinks it lacks a significant landmark and that they need one. (They don't.) In ten years or so the facade will start to look worse for wear and hopefully they'll demolish the whole thing.

Another Melbourne landmark that's looking worse for wear but will improve is the MCG. We saw Essendon defeat Melbourne in a thriller. About a third of the stands have been demolished, leaving a large empty gap. Even though the game was a sellout it felt empty. Not the ideal place to hold this year's Grand Final. Perhaps the Olympic Stadium in Sydney could help? (You wonder why the blog title refers to flying pigs?)

Between the footy and visiting people we didn't do much else at all. Just relaxed, ate and slept. (What election??) We'll probably do the same again next year.

Memo: Be nice to the child minders over the next 12 months.

The announcement by Labor that they'd increase accountability in parliament by, among other things, creating an 'independent' Speaker of the House of Representatives, doesn't go far enough.

Mr Latham has also advocated an independent Speaker of the House of Representatives, alternating between Labor and Liberal, who would be removed from day-to-day party politics along the lines of the British model.

He acknowledged the change in convention would require the agreement of the Coalition and said it would be "extraordinary" for it not to agree "in the circumstances that they will find themselves in after the election".

This Speaker would be about as independent as a US Army tribunal investigating whether David Hicks was abused while held by the US Army at Guantanamo Bay.

What's needed is an outsider to preside over parliament; someone who has no vested interest in any particular party. This person (or persons if it were thought more than one was needed) could be appointed by a process similar to the rejected model of choosing an Australian President, by a two thirds majority of the members of the House of Reps. Choosing someone in this way would ensure that they are acceptable to both sides of politics.

The only problem with this, of course, is that it would require a constitutional amendment. We all know how easy that is .....

Received from Optus in the mail today, some advertising material flogging 'Phone and Net Packages' that offer 'unlimited [dialup internet] downloads.'

On the next line it says '20 internet hours a month.'

Can't be unlimited downloads if there's a time limit.

Rumours of my demise are greatly exaggerated. Family commitments, work and weekends away don't leave much time for blogging. How I envy all those bloggers who seem to have so much time on their hands.

Last weekend away with several families from the kids' school. This coming weekend we're in Bleak City, visiting relatives and friends, and getting some footy in at the (sic) 'Home of Football.' For purely selfish reasons, and despite my previous rant, I wasn't totally unhappy at the prospect of seeing the Swans play there. However, the AFL has seen sense in letting them play in Sydney. Saved them a lot of bad press and will earn them a lot more money playing in front of 65000 rather than 30000.

The AFL have a lot of faith in the Victorian teams playing away this weekend, as they are relying on them to loose. This will allow two matches in Melbourne the following week to repay the debt they owe the MCC. Will be interesting to see what happens if one of the away teams wins.

Regarding lesser issues than the AFL finals, I believe an election's been called. Grist for the mill.

I'll get some other posts in when I can.