Howard's Re-election Strategy: The Vietnam Connection

Election yabber is increasing in the media and blog world. John Howard must be losing sleep as he is squeezed between the rock of unfavourable polls and the hard place of whether to run before or after the US presidential election.

I suspect that he won't risk going to the polls without Dubya. So it will be earlier rather than later.

Despite the polls, I don't think it's a foregone win for the Labor party. History has shown how the Liberal / National parties (the coalition) can hold power by manipulating the fears and prejudices of the electorate.

Labor was in opposition beween for 23 years between 1949 and 1972. In the 1950s, they were damaged by a factional split that resulted in the formation of the (now defunct) Democratic Labor Party.

In the 1961 election, Labor went within a few votes of winning government, but after that their electoral fortunes declined to the point where the coalition won the 1966 election by a landslide. The prime cause of the 1966 defeat was Labor's oppostion to the Vietnam War and Australia's participation in it. The coalition skillfully marginalised the ALP by talking up the population's fear of communism.

By the end of the 60s, the popularity of the Vietnam war and Australia's involvement in it decreased. Labor just lost the 1969 election, and won the 1972 election.

Howard would be well aware of the tactics his hero, Menzies, used to keep Labor at bay throughout this period.

Latham's declaration regarding bringing the troops home by Christmas is the biggest impediment his party has to regaining office after the coming election. The 'enemy' has changed but the method will be the same. The conservatives will talk up the threat of terrorism. A large portion of the electorate won't realise that Iraq has nothing to do with Bin Laden and Al Queda. The oft quoted call that Australians don't 'quit' will strike a chord.

I suspect that Labor will be forced to back down, perhaps promising to leave a small group of troops behind in Iraq to protect the embassy, or linking our involvement with the UN resolution regarding the formation of Iraqi provisional government.

No matter what other issues are raised during the election campaign, it is Australia's Iraqi involvement that will have to be managed carefully if Latham and Co want to sit on the Treasury Benches in the new parliament.